fivethirtyeight podcast transcripts. The Perks Workers Want Also Make Them More Productive, Democrats Are Open To Ditching Biden In 2024. On Thursday, the Supreme Court wrapped up its first term with a 6-3 conservative majority on the bench. Where the hot sports takes of the week meet the numbers that prove them right or tear them down. They also debate whether the AARP is correct in assessing that women voters over the age of 50 are likely to decide the outcome of the 2022 midterms. In this live taping of Model Talk in Washington, D.C., Nate and Galen break down the current forecasts for the Senate, House and gubernatorial races. With midterm elections in the rearview mirror, Galen and Nate open up the mail bag to answer lingering questions about the results. They also ask whether the US is in a recession, whether Andrew Yang's third party will succeed and how the DOJ's Jan. 6th investigation is affecting former President Trump. They also discuss how incumbents have been faring overall in this midterms primaries. The team assesses New York Governor Andrew Cuomo's political future after a report from the New York Attorney General concluded that he sexually harassed 11 women. Finally, they analyze why Bidens approval rating has increased by nearly five points since late July. While it appears unlikely that 17 Republicans will join Democrats in voting to convict the former president, the evidence presented could help shape the views of the public regarding what happened at the Capitol on January 6, 2021. All. The crew debates whether the Democratic Party really is actually in disarray as it struggles to pass legislation and faces a difficult midterm year, or if its hurdles are usual for any party in power. The crew also discusses how Americans are responding to the administrations handling of the end of the war. NEW TOWN . They also address concerns that the 2020 Census resulted in an undercount of Latinos. As of Monday, all U.S. troops have withdrawn from Afghanistan following a chaotic evacuation from the country. They also address a listener question that suggests Republicans achieve their policy goals more often than Democrats. Last week, we began to explore the most high-profile of those mayoral contests -- the New York City Democratic primary. President Bidens $2 trillion social spending and climate change agenda is in its most tenuous position yet after West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin announced that he will not support the Build Back Better Plan. The crew talks about the appeal of celebrity candidates and what it tells us about our politics. They also preview next week's mayoral election in Chicago and ask whether a new poll of Arizona's 2024 Senate race is actually telling us anything useful. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. According to a new poll from the Wall Street Journal, Hispanic voters are now split evenly between the Democratic and Republican parties, just one year after 60 percent voted for Democratic House candidates. Please subscribe to the Dow-ballot on Apple Podcasts and leave . History professor Yohuru Williams speaks with Galen Druke about how the protest movement sparked by George Floyd's murder compares with past social justice movements. Its a bold suggestion, and in this installment of the podcast we interrogate it. They also discuss moderate Senate Democrats' push to amend some of the provisions in the American Rescue plan and look at the politics and science behind the push to loosen covid-19 restrictions in states. Economics Professor at George Washington University, Tara Sinclair, joins to explain what is going on with the economy and the potential consequences of a spike in prices. It's a big election week for liberal democracies. They also cover the redistricting process happening around the country after a number of big recent developments. Thee also tracks the latest voting restrictions being considered by Georgia Republicans, including a proposal to end early voting on Sundays, which is when Black churches traditionally mobilize voters through "souls to the polls" events. FiveThirtyEight Politics News Latest Transcripts How To Make Polls Better 240 views about 2 years ago 01:12:44 Galen Druke speaks with two A+ rated pollsters, J. Ann Selzer and Patrick Murray, about how they view the challenges of polling and what can be done about them. Welcome to Internet Archive TV News! Upload your Podcast as an audio or video file to Type Studio in our menu. The crew talks about where Americans stand on mitigation efforts, how politicians are responding, and what public health experts are saying about the current state of the pandemic. Today, we wanted to share the first episode of the ABC News podcast series, "In Plain Sight: Lady Bird Johnson," which uncovers the former first lady's surprisingly powerful role in the Johnson presidency and includes history-making revelations about Lyndon B. Johnsons time in office. They also discuss the politics of reparations after a Democratic proposal in the House to study reparations for slavery was voted out of committee for the first time since it was introduced in Congress in 1989. The crew plays an Independence Day-inspired statistics game and discusses how the most recent Jan. 6 hearing could affect how Americans view former President Donald Trump. The crew discuss the 2021 gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey and the very likely recall election in California. The crew breaks down notable primary races in Minnesota, Vermont and Wisconsin. The cofounders of Equis Research -- a political data firm focused on Latino voters -- share their research on why that swing happened. They also check in on the results from two recent primary elections in Ohio and announce the launch of FiveThirtyEights Redistricting Tracker. Later, Monica Potts joins to discuss why voters sometimes contradict their partisan beliefs on ballot measures. Micah Cohen and Kaleigh Rogers also join to talk about why Republicans are not backing a bipartisan commission to investigate the January 6th attack on the U.S. Capitol. FT Podcasts FT Weekend podcast 31 min listen Best of: Chef Mashama Bailey on reclaiming African-American food The award-winning chef explains her creative process 2 hours ago FT News Briefing. The crew looks to the speeches from the past weekend's Conservative Political Action Conference for indications about where the Republican party is headed. Listen to FiveThirtyEight Politics on Spotify. 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. From host Jody Avirgan (30 for 30, FiveThirtyEight, Radiotopia) and the TED Audio Collective, Good Sport is your guide through an array of stadiums, pitches, pools and slopes that shed a light on the ups and downs of being human. Dive in and Share your insights! They also discuss why gas stoves became such a hot topic of debate on the internet and what the 2024 primary for U.S. Senate in California will look like. Galen Druke speaks with POLITICO Europe's Cornelius Hirsch and Clea Caulcutt about the dynamics at play in the French presidential election. With the benefit of hindsight and some time to breathe, Galen Druke reflects on key moments of the 2020 race with the authors of the new book, Lucky: How Joe Biden Barely Won The Presidency. Raffensperger's new book is called Integrity Counts.". Zach and ESPN's Michael Schwartz break down the red-hot Suns ahead of their showdown with the Warriors, then ESPN's Dave McMenamin checks in on the Lakers -- plus . Then, Equis Research co-founder Carlos Odio joins the pod to break down a new poll that asked Latino Americans which party they are favoring in the midterm elections. Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection Don't Look Great. They also rank the Senate races that will be most important in determining which party controls the Senate next year. This is the final FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast episode of the Trump presidency. On todays Politics Podcast, the crew discusses God, COVID-19, and the midterms. Feb. 28GLASTONBURY When Jonathan K. Luiz starts work as town manager March 31, he will be making $190,000 per year. The crew discusses which indicators are worth watching to get a sense for how the parties will perform in the 2022 elections. House Minority Leader Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) and U.S. President Donald Trump attend a signing ceremony for H.R. They also discuss Democratic lawmakers' varying views on how to approach Senate rules and the filibuster. 01:06 PM. They also discuss the latest developments in the current round of redistricting. He is one of the ten House Republicans who voted to impeach President Trump after his supporters attacked the Capitol on Jan. 6. Millions of people were without power or heat, and in some cases water, in freezing cold temperatures for days because of severe blackouts. They also debate whether a poll asking Americans to choose what they think is the best decade of their lives is a good or bad use of polling. American politics has changed a lot in the twenty years since the 9/11 terrorist attacks. Progressive Democrats have struggled to break through in one of the most high-profile elections of the year: the Democratic primary for New York City mayor. Editor Chadwick Matlin turns the tables on Galen Druke and asks him questions about what hes learned from covering the 2022 election and his time as host of the podcast. Latino voters swung by eight percentage points toward President Trump in the last election, the largest swing of any racial or ethnic group in the electorate. They also talk about how the California recall election is shaping up after a recent poll showed increased support for recalling current Governor Gavin Newsom. They also touch on the health of the polling industry and how much Biden's success in a potential 2024 primary hangs on Democrats' performance at the midterms. The posting for the podcast's freelance audio editor position can be found here. The crew previews Tuesday's primaries in Georgia as well as contests in Arkansas, Alabama, Texas and Minnesota. Democratic representative from California Adam Schiff discusses why he thinks American democracy is in trouble, which he lays out in his new book "Midnight In Washington: How We Almost Lost Our Democracy And Still Could.". The crew, joined by ABC News White House Correspondent Karen Travers, discusses Trump's legacy, how he changed politics and what the lasting effects will be. The crew discusses the Virginia and new Jersey gubernatorial races a week before election day, and guesses how Americans feel about the potential provisions in the Democrats spending bill. The U.S. shot down at least three unidentified flying objects over the weekend. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses God, COVID-19 The Ticket - A Presidential Podcast comes from the Texas Tribune. The crew discusses how debates on both the debt ceiling and the future of Rep. George Santoss career might unfold. The crew tries to unpack whats driving Democrats legislative decisions and who will have to compromise to pass the party's agenda. Lastly, the team analyzes how the educational divide is shaping American politics. Each week, host Jody Avirgan brings you stories and interviews about how data is changing our lives. Galen Druke discusses the context of these laws with Theodore Johnson, the Director of the Fellows Program at the Brennan Center for Justice. Cuomo denied the allegations, but has faced overwhelming pressure to resign from fellow Democrats, including President Joe Biden. As we discussed earlier this week, House Democrats plan on passing a one point nine trillion dollar American rescue plan by the end of the week. Legal scholar Kate Shaw also digs into some of the specifics of the terms major cases, particularly on election law. Together they describe why the war has not turned out as originally expected, what the risks of escalation are today and how the conflict might come to an end. Thirty-six governors seats are up for election this fall and the crew looks at some where full control of state government might be decided by the governors race. Their recent data-driven post-mortem of the Latino vote in 2020 looks at which voters were likeliest to favor Trump and offers some hypotheses as to why. The crew discusses why the country responded to the attacks the way it did and how healthy American democracy is today. The crew discusses the political fallout from the Supreme Courts decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. geoffrey.skelley: After West Virginia, the most vulnerable Democratic seats are Ohio and Montana. We assess the state of American democracy, based on a new survey from Bright Line Watch, a group of political scientists that monitors threats to our democratic systems. Galen Druke and Perry Bacon Jr. speak with political scientist and pastor, Ryan Burge, about how declining American religiosity is shaping our society and politics. FiveThirtyEight Politics 199 Episodes Share Follow Episodes About 61 minutes | Feb 27, 2023 How The War In Ukraine Could Go Nuclear To mark a year since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Galen Druke brings back two experts who first joined the podcast when the war began. You can't imitate a worldview. Maybe its time to get rid of election polls. During the span of 25 years, same-sex marriage went from being an unimaginable idea to settled law. From host Jody Avirgan (30 for 30, FiveThirtyEight, Radiotopia) and the TED Audio Collective, Good Sport is your guide through an array of stadiums, pitches, pools and slopes that shed a light on the ups and downs of being human. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. FiveThirtyEight Politics ABC News (US) Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. The crew looks back at what Americans thought about some of the biggest political and cultural issues of 2021. With the data from the most recent term in hand, the crew discusses how far to the right the Supreme Court has gone. Its generally considered to be one of the most comprehensive pictures of trends within the electorate. The report relies on advanced climate modeling to illustrate where global warming is headed. Galen Druke is the host and producer of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast. They also discuss the recent trend in Senate candidates refusing to debate each other and why Republicans can't agree on what abortion restrictions to pass. Ron DeSantis over Trump for the 2024 GOP presidential primary. Hours before we freeze the FiveThirtyEight midterm forecast tonight, it shows that Republicans are in a dead heat for the Senate and are favored to win the House. If Europe, and of the shop leave us a rating or review in the Apple podcast store when you rating. The recall effort ultimately failed by a sizable margin. The crew looks at what Americans think about aid to Ukraine one year on, how the public may respond to Sen. John Fetterman's treatment for clinical depression and former President Trump's legal liability in a Fulton County investigation. The crew looks at how the Johnson & Johnson vaccine pause shaped public opinion of that vaccine and willingness to be vaccinated more broadly. Two days after Election Day, control of the U.S. House and Senate still hangs in the balance as votes are tallied in the Western states. A lack of those relationships can actually have an impact on political behavior and interest in extreme ideologies. ( Businessweek) Posted by October 30, 2021 bangladesh police ranks on fivethirtyeight podcast transcripts October 30, 2021 bangladesh police ranks on fivethirtyeight podcast transcripts He has also reported audio documentaries at FiveThirtyEight, including the monthslong series "The Gerrymandering Project." His work has been heard on NPR, WNYC, On The Media, CBC, Wisconsin Public Radio and the University of Cambridge's ELECTION podcast. We speak with the director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, Patrick Murray, who wrote an article titled I blew it. The crew digs into why Democrats underperformed in a special election in Texas. Recent polls have sent some contradictory messages, but the long and short of it is that seven races are now separated by three points or less polling average. Samuel Charap is a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation and author of the book Everyone Loses: The Ukraine Crisis and the Ruinous Contest for Post-Soviet Eurasia. In this late night edition of the podcast, the crew discusses the factors that went into Republican Glenn Youngkin winning the Virginia governor's race.